Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (13 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -0.49608017775721025,
      "diversity": -0.22173913043478266
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.34474090128371226
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "intelligence",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.010670731707317074,
    "share60": 0.017524235645041013,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1340,
    "momentum": 0.6089128178515829,
    "diversity": 0.5652173913043478,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 100,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999454166666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.34474090128371226
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004017176894306691,
  "shareRatio": 0.4441366574330563,
  "totalAfter": 7219,
  "shareBefore": 0.009148560141386838,
  "totalBefore": 9619,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 29,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 88
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity