GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2852 · narrative · 24H

Will "agi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "agi" (6 distinct creators, rank #86). Last 15m momentum 0.31×.

Made2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.156792082564002,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3285563082634557
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agi",
    "rank60": 86,
    "share15": 0.001524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.004847129008202834,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1340,
    "momentum": 0.31449343339587243,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 100,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999863541666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3285563082634557
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.108
Log loss0.398
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00043325580334747113,
  "shareRatio": 0.30987106791593294,
  "totalAfter": 43854,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014246484834720128,
  "totalBefore": 48433,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 19,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "agi" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.04% (-70%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "agi" (24H). momentum contributed -1.16 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash13c9bdae5df8508d6b2f6e179d74431bdfde1e333214230fb0f37783754f5773
Previous hashfe64cd7b3f3c3f3750f6f7a7c4ab924dc50d991b5fdf762ada1bbec1d8b22df7