Ledger / Prediction #2860 · narrative · 1H

Will "claude" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "claude" (4 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": 0.16545344406532034,
      "diversity": -0.66
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35741480026697275
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claude",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.017759562841530054,
    "share60": 0.015051395007342145,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 1.1799280287884846,
    "diversity": 0.2,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968666666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35741480026697275
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.128

Log loss0.442

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002105263157894737,
  "shareRatio": 0.16366777272260802,
  "totalAfter": 1425,
  "shareBefore": 0.014641288433382138,
  "totalBefore": 1366,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "claude" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.46% → 0.21% (-86%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "claude" (1H). diversity contributed -0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfe76aabd3ac34e6bba13c1a1b061119218cc4e7c9dc22bb2adc80538e9bc55c8

Previous hashfc330494a5082fc9f9acf761518a7bab1d9ef9e42c58dc8fa19575c1e2f3be77