GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2862 · narrative · 6H

Will "web" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "web" (28 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.58×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 1.2752363199918275,
      "diversity": -0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6594541612322973
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "web",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.13797814207650272,
    "share60": 0.03854625550660793,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 3.5795472287275563,
    "diversity": 0.5384615384615384,
    "launches15": 50,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 28
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994777777777778
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6594541612322973
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.435
Log loss1.077
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.000836703388648724,
  "shareRatio": 0.1273112570939574,
  "totalAfter": 7171,
  "shareBefore": 0.007065217391304348,
  "totalBefore": 9200,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 65
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 66% that "web" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.08% (-88%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "web" (6H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd8d19d9393f96fb89a6a64a0b60949bd1958ba6debc4bfde7617bc96276c7c97
Previous hashb6a5a2ed4a3236dc97e03cf510a90918525c73020fddce5a04834bd32bf71995