Ledger / Prediction #2863 · narrative · 6H

Will "added" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "added" (24 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.72×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 1.3140761533080916,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6564104341610589
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "added",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.1325136612021858,
    "share60": 0.035609397944199705,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 3.7213114754098364,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994777777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6564104341610589
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.431

Log loss1.068

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002789011295495747,
  "shareRatio": 0.06479321942233264,
  "totalAfter": 7171,
  "shareBefore": 0.005326086956521739,
  "totalBefore": 9200,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 66% that "added" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.03% (-95%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "added" (6H). momentum contributed +1.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe164d6a28f68aade761616d8a891cc00acda01e2d52239fabf7cdfcb92f52d6e

Previous hashd8d19d9393f96fb89a6a64a0b60949bd1958ba6debc4bfde7617bc96276c7c97