Ledger / Prediction #2866 · narrative · 24H

Will "added" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "added" (24 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.72×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 1.3140761533080916,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5930697716079104
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "added",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.1325136612021858,
    "share60": 0.035609397944199705,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 3.7213114754098364,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 48,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998694444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5930697716079104
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.352

Log loss0.899

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010737457735538701,
  "shareRatio": 0.8538758439465691,
  "totalAfter": 43772,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012605389320548852,
  "totalBefore": 48392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 47,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "added" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.11% (-15%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "added" (24H). momentum contributed +1.31 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheab3779d67eca85151d5809ea62d8b25b656cc65a25f0c7a3022b09ac114cc59

Previous hashcdaa4833b0f7d3c17449e9da994b78f036a558493eb92b74e419671c4e844f88