Ledger / Prediction #2867 · narrative · 24H

Will "test" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "test" (8 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 3.52×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 1.2577232167569596,
      "diversity": -0.6333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5399772386739197
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "test",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0942622950819672,
    "share60": 0.026798825256975037,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 3.517403997305187,
    "diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998694444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5399772386739197
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.212

Log loss0.616

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011148679521155076,
  "shareRatio": 1.5907466714658267,
  "totalAfter": 43772,
  "shareBefore": 0.007005290130600099,
  "totalBefore": 48392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 488,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 339
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "test" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 1.11% (+59%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "test" (24H). momentum contributed +1.26 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1fed1db9e588a914c348cfb5f36d88b0b64ae355a2c4ff45c7afc96772deae28

Previous hasheab3779d67eca85151d5809ea62d8b25b656cc65a25f0c7a3022b09ac114cc59