Ledger / Prediction #2868 · narrative · 24H

Will "studio" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "studio" (4 distinct creators, rank #132). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.5256187929438212,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49820235686353276
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "studio",
    "rank60": 132,
    "share15": 0.006830601092896175,
    "share60": 0.004038179148311307,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 1.6915052160953798,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998694444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49820235686353276
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.248

Log loss0.690

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005254500593987023,
  "shareRatio": 0.611301084068745,
  "totalAfter": 43772,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008679120515787734,
  "totalBefore": 48392,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "studio" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.09% → 0.05% (-39%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "studio" (24H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash27bc620ef1a408dc6d803c870ba08664d6c6c37b3741a31f0629d9ea96b3f456

Previous hash1fed1db9e588a914c348cfb5f36d88b0b64ae355a2c4ff45c7afc96772deae28