Ledger / Prediction #2874 · narrative · 1H

Will "test" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

95 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "test" (11 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.441665846874966,
      "momentum": -1.5259264365273417,
      "diversity": -0.7610526315789473
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10476999773999035
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "test",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.014211886304909561,
    "share60": 0.06536618754277893,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 0.21741953813060594,
    "diversity": 0.11578947368421053,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 95,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9941030555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10476999773999035
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.011

Log loss0.111

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012244897959183673,
  "shareRatio": 0.19407599736938752,
  "totalAfter": 1225,
  "shareBefore": 0.06484641638225255,
  "totalBefore": 1465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 95
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "test" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.48% → 1.22% (-81%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "test" (1H). momentum contributed -1.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdc295a43cc062b11cb1295dc50f14b0e486c7abbd98700da50e58f59bb43c8c4

Previous hashf7a5ed0711a382a06776cd11f460ca8c673b1d3d9d91dac9cc1a5a1c602bb920