Ledger / Prediction #2877 · narrative · 6H
Will "sleep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
106 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "sleep" (7 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.50×.
Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.458100177251695,
"momentum": 0.9159194433896609,
"diversity": -0.8207547169811321
},
"rawProbability": 0.521807514404207
},
"features": {
"term": "sleep",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.1821705426356589,
"share60": 0.0728952772073922,
"total15": 386,
"total60": 1460,
"momentum": 2.4990719510863633,
"diversity": 0.0660377358490566,
"launches15": 70,
"launches60": 106,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990171759259259
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.521807514404207
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.272
Log loss0.738
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00042949176807444524,
"shareRatio": 0.042107470755464414,
"totalAfter": 6985,
"shareBefore": 0.011844144343590879,
"totalBefore": 9034,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 107
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "sleep" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.18% → 0.04% (-96%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sleep" (6H). momentum contributed +0.92 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
49cff56f8451a4fab76958809fb1715b11399df063b386fb15d194bf854b3844Previous hash
523c6da604e03381153e20c6673589391dd7c16e7279ef6f12995e794b0ce77b