Ledger / Prediction #2880 · narrative · 6H

Will "death" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "death" (5 distinct creators, rank #130). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.029168734590656716,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4826115437060688
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "death",
    "rank60": 130,
    "share15": 0.003875968992248062,
    "share60": 0.0037645448323066393,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 1.029598308668076,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990171759259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4826115437060688
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.233

Log loss0.659

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002863278453829635,
  "shareRatio": 0.49742341826510167,
  "totalAfter": 6985,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006641576267434137,
  "totalBefore": 9034,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "death" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.03% (-57%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "death" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashff3cfadf58ea995ff6083315b944e9edd01eb6ec0fd3b6189b2c094cf970e6a2

Previous hash7b1c55619773bdedfc816f02f687557eea853cd144a5ef14c4656bd1d6144dfd