Ledger / Prediction #2881 · narrative · 24H

Will "sleep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

106 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "sleep" (7 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.50×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.458100177251695,
      "momentum": 0.9159194433896609,
      "diversity": -0.8207547169811321
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49415837876947033
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sleep",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.1821705426356589,
    "share60": 0.0728952772073922,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 2.4990719510863633,
    "diversity": 0.0660377358490566,
    "launches15": 70,
    "launches60": 106,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997542939814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49415837876947033
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.244

Log loss0.682

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006194223313221225,
  "shareRatio": 0.2223721036935077,
  "totalAfter": 43589,
  "shareBefore": 0.0028267822139688434,
  "totalBefore": 48465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 137
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "sleep" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.06% (-78%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "sleep" (24H). diversity contributed -0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe45fdfe68da2d283f5a3163f15973a82ee2cec09cc9b61c7f2a2124bf2e8dabd

Previous hashff3cfadf58ea995ff6083315b944e9edd01eb6ec0fd3b6189b2c094cf970e6a2