Will "nietzschean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
57 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "nietzschean" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.72×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3650420033100675,
"momentum": 1.0023601981542656,
"diversity": -0.14210526315789476
},
"rawProbability": 0.5775315904210593
},
"features": {
"term": "nietzschean",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.10723514211886305,
"share60": 0.039356605065023954,
"total15": 386,
"total60": 1460,
"momentum": 2.7247050893158073,
"diversity": 0.631578947368421,
"launches15": 41,
"launches60": 57,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 36
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997542939814815
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5775315904210593
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0021794489435408015,
"shareRatio": 1.4446623063081623,
"totalAfter": 43589,
"shareBefore": 0.0015062416176622306,
"totalBefore": 48465,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 95,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Predicted 58% that "nietzschean" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.22% (+45%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "nietzschean" (24H). momentum contributed +1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
d2a2b72c439073a135bced4d990c842740e095a6b864fe46027be3ec071eef2ce45fdfe68da2d283f5a3163f15973a82ee2cec09cc9b61c7f2a2124bf2e8dabd