Ledger / Prediction #2890 · narrative · 1H

Will "viral" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "viral" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.80×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": 0.5872246303221985,
      "diversity": -0.8448275862068966
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46776167964146326
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "viral",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.11061946902654868,
    "share60": 0.06148981026001406,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 1.7989886219974716,
    "diversity": 0.04597701149425287,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993408333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46776167964146326
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.219

Log loss0.631

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014617368873602751,
  "shareRatio": 0.2395419378371633,
  "totalAfter": 1163,
  "shareBefore": 0.062456140350877196,
  "totalBefore": 1425,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "viral" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.25% → 1.46% (-77%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "viral" (1H). diversity contributed -0.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd0f118beb578bfd30d6d4b54a90cc43b8af95bfa44adc925875218581c808f2b

Previous hashc76b188c68f573ab82fc50eee2b33bcbf1c51b0a051c2edc2827f7a08bb4fa4e