Ledger / Prediction #2891 · narrative · 1H

Will "alone" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "alone" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.86×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.6221118893226391,
      "diversity": -0.8571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47207306157467804
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alone",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.11061946902654868,
    "share60": 0.05938158819395643,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 1.8628580405299262,
    "diversity": 0.03571428571428571,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993408333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47207306157467804
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.223

Log loss0.639

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010318142734307825,
  "shareRatio": 0.17703553622152038,
  "totalAfter": 1163,
  "shareBefore": 0.060350877192982454,
  "totalBefore": 1425,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 86
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "alone" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.04% → 1.03% (-83%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "alone" (1H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha122f3017b1d40e40380853ca9e29a004a21d5af865009a7770bb6ec5dca9f89

Previous hashd0f118beb578bfd30d6d4b54a90cc43b8af95bfa44adc925875218581c808f2b