Ledger / Prediction #2895 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (19 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -0.5113876583459112,
      "diversity": 0.049999999999999954
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3873970937597001
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.01032448377581121,
    "share60": 0.017217146872803936,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 0.5996628739991572,
    "diversity": 0.7916666666666666,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998901388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3873970937597001
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.150

Log loss0.490

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.022231662418578307,
  "shareRatio": 0.8034900325924396,
  "totalAfter": 7062,
  "shareBefore": 0.02770052286127489,
  "totalBefore": 8989,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 157,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 249
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.77% → 2.22% (-20%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed -0.51 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash512b246c4768200e6c51f68b0b9026079be047355d9f63f2fdd27144fd1ea6d9

Previous hashda2231cc44d868c2de34902bebdb2c3cd7e9473ae2631d0be8b9ab7f53290c03