Will "alone" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "alone" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.86×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.6221118893226391,
      "diversity": -0.8571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4487031032830316
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alone",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.11061946902654868,
    "share60": 0.05938158819395643,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 1.8628580405299262,
    "diversity": 0.03571428571428571,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999725347222223
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4487031032830316
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007112865107954937,
  "shareRatio": 0.3385087467279576,
  "totalAfter": 43583,
  "shareBefore": 0.0021248066013408976,
  "totalBefore": 48475,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 103
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity