Ledger / Prediction #2904 · token · 6H

Will $Grift still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 2% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. No social links. No hot term. Creator launched 99 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.02310254327777607
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5ZYGjYi3ECDuHdExXJiLJD8awebEoCUfCoUgZDubpump",
    "name": "Grift",
    "symbol": "Grift",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4128.247435759741,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 99
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 433,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.02310254327777607
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.023

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T05:49:38.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 973.1376085821079,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7801.112523600232,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4128.247435759741,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 8256.494871519482
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 2% that $Grift would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $973, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Grift (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashce9ae80b50ade7c1bb28869724d6324a296023ba9766c03a16b9619fbaf0aa4c

Previous hashf56d3695c9edb28f975d2edd5f3481cbd87e3c76783079f6aa7524185d2e00d3