Ledger / Prediction #2905 · narrative · 1H

Will "been" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

98 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "been" (3 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4463294349354708,
      "momentum": -3.803719387580527,
      "diversity": -0.8632653061224489
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "been",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0017921146953405018,
    "share60": 0.08040816326530613,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1224,
    "momentum": 0.022287720830376796,
    "diversity": 0.030612244897959183,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 98,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 125,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963066666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002688172043010753,
  "shareRatio": 0.039000404455371306,
  "totalAfter": 1116,
  "shareBefore": 0.08,
  "totalBefore": 1225,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 98
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "been" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.00% → 0.27% (-97%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "been" (1H). momentum contributed -3.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1370495a31fe9f637c14d80befbf84dfc120f649e5379bfcdbfcf4848bf5d62e

Previous hashce9ae80b50ade7c1bb28869724d6324a296023ba9766c03a16b9619fbaf0aa4c