Ledger / Prediction #2906 · narrative · 1H

Will "posted" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "posted" (3 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.19×.

Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -1.656009874771688,
      "diversity": -0.7941176470588235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07852279103175475
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "posted",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.005376344086021506,
    "share60": 0.02816326530612245,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1224,
    "momentum": 0.19089917406887955,
    "diversity": 0.08823529411764706,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 125,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963066666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07852279103175475
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.006

Log loss0.082

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007168458781362007,
  "shareRatio": 0.27041895345970707,
  "totalAfter": 1116,
  "shareBefore": 0.027755102040816326,
  "totalBefore": 1225,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 8% that "posted" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.78% → 0.72% (-74%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "posted" (1H). momentum contributed -1.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash37c51ac224fbc47fe6af42d895b8cc2a333fd87d7e02b8c8cca91cc0170ebe2f

Previous hash1370495a31fe9f637c14d80befbf84dfc120f649e5379bfcdbfcf4848bf5d62e