Ledger / Prediction #2907 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (22 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.
Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": -0.16567165387871804,
"diversity": 0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.4589924380566015
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 15,
"share15": 0.01971326164874552,
"share60": 0.02326530612244898,
"total15": 278,
"total60": 1224,
"momentum": 0.8473244042004652,
"diversity": 0.7857142857142857,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 125,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963066666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4589924380566015
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.293
Log loss0.779
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.024193548387096774,
"shareRatio": 1.0590711335186669,
"totalAfter": 1116,
"shareBefore": 0.022857142857142857,
"totalBefore": 1225,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 27,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 46% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.29% → 2.42% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6968af6e3b27726343d6b56468899de9a0013e1a865845d0c6d75f30457b5a6cPrevious hash
37c51ac224fbc47fe6af42d895b8cc2a333fd87d7e02b8c8cca91cc0170ebe2f