Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

71 of 2635 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (67 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3979862946910822,
      "momentum": 0.29611408258700544,
      "diversity": 0.23239436619718304
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6516942316698483
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03647214854111406,
    "share60": 0.02712443095599393,
    "total15": 753,
    "total60": 2635,
    "momentum": 1.3446235462150582,
    "diversity": 0.9436619718309859,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 71,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 67
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 425,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976980555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976980555555556
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6516942316698483
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01714939024390244,
  "shareRatio": 0.6407272727272727,
  "totalAfter": 2624,
  "shareBefore": 0.026873580620741862,
  "totalBefore": 2642,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity