Will "mayhem" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "mayhem" (4 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 1.18×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": 0.16380754725152452,
      "diversity": -0.66
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37712390773480764
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mayhem",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.01971326164874552,
    "share60": 0.01673469387755102,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1224,
    "momentum": 1.1779875863274762,
    "diversity": 0.2,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 125,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993844444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37712390773480764
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010815195349466,
  "shareRatio": 0.24385620340241743,
  "totalAfter": 7397,
  "shareBefore": 0.0046553877597365735,
  "totalBefore": 8807,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity