Will "sanctuary" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
19 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "sanctuary" (15 distinct creators, rank #21). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.200250160009851,
"momentum": 0.5239728961300254,
"diversity": 0.047368421052631594
},
"rawProbability": 0.5214357873556665
},
"features": {
"term": "sanctuary",
"rank60": 21,
"share15": 0.026881720430107527,
"share60": 0.015918367346938776,
"total15": 278,
"total60": 1224,
"momentum": 1.6887234629170114,
"diversity": 0.7894736842105263,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 19,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 125,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998461111111111
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5214357873556665
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00032104937280711814,
"shareRatio": 0.5860963793132203,
"totalAfter": 43607,
"shareBefore": 0.0005570226109919129,
"totalBefore": 48472,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 27
}Predicted 52% that "sanctuary" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.03% (-42%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sanctuary" (24H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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