GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2921 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (18 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 0.40049831908805594,
      "diversity": -0.20322580645161284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5426349412462851
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.04063604240282685,
    "share60": 0.027225583405358685,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 1.4925682876212911,
    "diversity": 0.5806451612903226,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938113888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5426349412462851
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.294
Log loss0.782
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0196078431372549,
  "shareRatio": 0.7396771314999595,
  "totalAfter": 1173,
  "shareBefore": 0.026655202063628546,
  "totalBefore": 1163,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.67% → 1.96% (-26%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashec2c9299ea8f3ca5c5cd10acebd87f8dd8e0c8fa8fc16505e372978240cfccb9
Previous hashf21bf4db888b55a3fe9a114f11a83d06a113c221fa5d52cb60764d6fad97a92f