Ledger / Prediction #2923 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (20 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -2.562153084001683,
      "diversity": 0.023076923076923127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06966949351502193
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0017667844522968198,
    "share60": 0.022904062229904928,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 0.07713847589839322,
    "diversity": 0.7692307692307693,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938113888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.06966949351502193
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.072

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011082693947144074,
  "shareRatio": 0.48672758246863873,
  "totalAfter": 1173,
  "shareBefore": 0.023215821152192607,
  "totalBefore": 1163,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.32% → 1.11% (-52%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -2.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe6a2ae5abf3fe031cbe7eaa81f4a41c24fbab625267b59e23b737f1c8b81d7c7

Previous hash550e65fc17bd04a49415e4becc51a1072a17853fd19a5c4945beeb1212b1ecb0