Ledger / Prediction #293 · narrative · 6H
Will "fox" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
89 of 2635 launches in the last hour referenced "fox" (40 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.42×.
Made2026-10-09 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 18:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.43187976859470595,
"momentum": 1.229025695697201,
"diversity": -0.36067415730337077
},
"rawProbability": 0.6479777361716569
},
"features": {
"term": "fox",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.11604774535809019,
"share60": 0.03395295902883156,
"total15": 753,
"total60": 2635,
"momentum": 3.417897840937718,
"diversity": 0.449438202247191,
"launches15": 87,
"launches60": 89,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 40
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 425,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9976980555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163425925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6479777361716569
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.420
Log loss1.044
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004831237590999338,
"shareRatio": 0.6627035764724921,
"totalAfter": 15110,
"shareBefore": 0.0073053642245877685,
"totalBefore": 14373,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 73,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 105
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "fox" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.73% → 0.48% (-34%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fox" (6H). momentum contributed +1.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
62dc20e33d018e5560967405e2b2352c28ab50d44c09b213fa8d701a370fa5b6Previous hash
24c52c24af32b2c53f35f3f68295adfada21e2a60c5afbcf7898d779049dceea