Ledger / Prediction #2937 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (32 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.13×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.12351177920915626,
      "diversity": -0.11632653061224496
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5123831188830381
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05018587360594796,
    "share60": 0.04435483870967742,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 1.1314633322068266,
    "diversity": 0.6530612244897959,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993772222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5123831188830381
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0750625521267723,
  "shareRatio": 1.7018265993265995,
  "totalAfter": 1199,
  "shareBefore": 0.04390681003584229,
  "totalBefore": 1116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 90,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.39% → 7.51% (+71%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8601cc2e935adb416a1d918ea6fde840573a185714941c21899093fc3e6b941b

Previous hashbf165faa8110ad002a152296793aa71f44d41acbe883456df2cb676f8addb67a