Ledger / Prediction #2939 · narrative · 1H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (20 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -2.290777303364891,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11077657908370894
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0018587360594795538,
    "share60": 0.018369175627240143,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 0.10118777767703327,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993772222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11077657908370894
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.012

Log loss0.117

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004170141784820684,
  "shareRatio": 0.2497357723577236,
  "totalAfter": 1199,
  "shareBefore": 0.017921146953405017,
  "totalBefore": 1116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.79% → 0.42% (-77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chain" (1H). momentum contributed -2.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2fedd15d1bb93d9572b380522e2feccd1c4742850d07facc9c04f593de27b26c

Previous hash760c99a50ce334e01b5d09ae9198d5a983691677937ad7e8d7c420ee85ffbb6a