Ledger / Prediction #294 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
76 of 2635 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (53 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.
Made2026-10-09 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 18:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4081943141778346,
"momentum": -0.22346433228857998,
"diversity": -0.06315789473684216
},
"rawProbability": 0.4464809242174419
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.023209549071618037,
"share60": 0.02902124430955994,
"total15": 753,
"total60": 2635,
"momentum": 0.7997434163762764,
"diversity": 0.6973684210526315,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 76,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 53
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 425,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9976980555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163425925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4464809242174419
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.306
Log loss0.806
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.028457974851091992,
"shareRatio": 1.5903047545252509,
"totalAfter": 15110,
"shareBefore": 0.017880748625895778,
"totalBefore": 14373,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 430,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 257
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.79% → 2.85% (+59%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed -0.22 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
616126cbc4f0e30d1ee06eeb4950774325ec9c83c34e182f06c509ce221d385ePrevious hash
62dc20e33d018e5560967405e2b2352c28ab50d44c09b213fa8d701a370fa5b6