Ledger / Prediction #2940 · narrative · 1H

Will "main" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "main" (3 distinct creators, rank #175). Last 15m momentum 1.13×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.12351177920915626,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41180993368741775
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "main",
    "rank60": 175,
    "share15": 0.0055762081784386614,
    "share60": 0.00492831541218638,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 1.1314633322068266,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993772222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41180993368741775
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.170

Log loss0.531

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003336113427856547,
  "shareRatio": 0.7615909090909091,
  "totalAfter": 1199,
  "shareBefore": 0.004480286738351254,
  "totalBefore": 1116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "main" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.33% (-26%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "main" (1H). diversity contributed -0.18 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7e6bb757e56db7f6163f1171b67ce5f9aea640ec1344fa5fb15ee33050170147

Previous hash2fedd15d1bb93d9572b380522e2feccd1c4742850d07facc9c04f593de27b26c