Ledger / Prediction #2941 · narrative · 6H

Will "wif" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "wif" (14 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": 0.4323960593115404,
      "diversity": 0.08823529411764701
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5480855182527068
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wif",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.024163568773234202,
    "share60": 0.01568100358422939,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 1.540945300053107,
    "diversity": 0.8235294117647058,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998962037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5480855182527068
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.204

Log loss0.601

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.017496303597831445,
  "shareRatio": 2.853575918215516,
  "totalAfter": 8116,
  "shareBefore": 0.0060931899641577065,
  "totalBefore": 8370,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 142,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "wif" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.61% → 1.75% (+187%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "wif" (6H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheb482c781fec41726233154eadafa2c9c07d183b65d92de7cf99378b30d86078

Previous hash7e6bb757e56db7f6163f1171b67ce5f9aea640ec1344fa5fb15ee33050170147