Ledger / Prediction #2943 · narrative · 6H

Will "house" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "house" (13 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -2.073712798127063,
      "diversity": 0.075
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17122529831912847
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "house",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0018587360594795538,
    "share60": 0.01478494623655914,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 0.12571814802298073,
    "diversity": 0.8125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 13
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998962037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17122529831912847
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.687

Log loss1.765

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003942828979793002,
  "shareRatio": 1.1361695374637453,
  "totalAfter": 8116,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034647550776583033,
  "totalBefore": 8370,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "house" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.39% (+14%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "house" (6H). momentum contributed -2.07 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 83% and wrong on "house". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash163535783c08b2660a70f7dfb6383207b197a6b70ca82fdedc125df347669bf3

Previous hash57964cdeffb00da04380c6e894a8e801238861b882f33d48ad7d26101e02e3a0