GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2944 · narrative · 6H

Will "lofopad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 72% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "lofopad" (6 distinct creators, rank #129). Last 15m momentum 4.15×.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 1.4227947633394171,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7160801450768147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lofopad",
    "rank60": 129,
    "share15": 0.024163568773234202,
    "share60": 0.005824372759856631,
    "total15": 268,
    "total60": 1115,
    "momentum": 4.148698884758364,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998962037037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7160801450768147
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.513
Log loss1.259
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.06875282329267791,
  "totalAfter": 8116,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008363201911589009,
  "totalBefore": 8370,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 72% that "lofopad" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "lofopad" (6H). momentum contributed +1.42 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0bd4960ce3b20068b8f509c38d6fc0a8edd043ed364bb129ab9b5c298181bab7
Previous hash163535783c08b2660a70f7dfb6383207b197a6b70ca82fdedc125df347669bf3