Ledger / Prediction #2954 · narrative · 1H

Will "claimed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "claimed" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -3.0517470815351064,
      "diversity": -0.8076923076923077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claimed",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.001597444089456869,
    "share60": 0.03378956372968349,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.04727625672341974,
    "diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963255555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005272407732864675,
  "shareRatio": 0.1696135850901857,
  "totalAfter": 1138,
  "shareBefore": 0.03324808184143223,
  "totalBefore": 1173,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "claimed" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.32% → 0.53% (-84%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "claimed" (1H). momentum contributed -3.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha6327f61521fb144a50c47270e59f80ecc8fab794632e163b9821ce7146ee783

Previous hash8fd2196d6814e0a36e481335b923081697b10d1f3f7587ad7d26cbf8a62a39b3