Ledger / Prediction #2955 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (14 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.95×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -0.055348363437954816,
      "diversity": -0.4459459459459459
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37728870523026653
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03035143769968051,
    "share60": 0.0320786997433704,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.9461554845580404,
    "diversity": 0.3783783783783784,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963255555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37728870523026653
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.142

Log loss0.474

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0210896309314587,
  "shareRatio": 0.673409423470881,
  "totalAfter": 1138,
  "shareBefore": 0.03154305200341006,
  "totalBefore": 1173,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.15% → 2.11% (-33%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). diversity contributed -0.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc29bce3b62eaff318f0cf09082c19ff54d0f0ddba7113f5512e01253bab88a3b

Previous hasha6327f61521fb144a50c47270e59f80ecc8fab794632e163b9821ce7146ee783