Ledger / Prediction #2959 · narrative · 6H

Will "uinhim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "uinhim" (3 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -1.3448870560935375,
      "diversity": -0.7285714285714286
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1678786251993244
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uinhim",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004792332268370607,
    "share60": 0.018391787852865698,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.26056913589419717,
    "diversity": 0.14285714285714285,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993875925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1678786251993244
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.028

Log loss0.184

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015479876160990713,
  "shareRatio": 0.29486634332449313,
  "totalAfter": 8398,
  "shareBefore": 0.005391804457225018,
  "totalBefore": 8346,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "uinhim" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 0.15% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uinhim" (6H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6b2fd86e19b3e53ce03a3a77a4adb1548c5dde8f399a1eb9b64042af3fe36c34

Previous hash1fad0ff09f8ba49f82896e9b33bd2114598d3d2df7998e87dc01b8588dfec3b6