Ledger / Prediction #2961 · narrative · 24H

Will "claimed" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "claimed" (3 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": -3.0517470815351064,
      "diversity": -0.8076923076923077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11148510525203449
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claimed",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.001597444089456869,
    "share60": 0.03378956372968349,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.04727625672341974,
    "diversity": 0.07692307692307693,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11148510525203449
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.012

Log loss0.118

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001327018555380145,
  "shareRatio": 0.2955995781448719,
  "totalAfter": 43707,
  "shareBefore": 0.0045175729442970824,
  "totalBefore": 48256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 218
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "claimed" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.45% → 0.13% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "claimed" (24H). momentum contributed -3.05 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3ea4aa3ba7288f9b663599efa8d9c1d4e05479d37f7e1bcea2bfbb241448ef55

Previous hash3b7b1032c4c6f6f7d37fc6e287ad1e6a37472de8aaa05c41d8296891eb88e2df