Ledger / Prediction #2962 · narrative · 24H

Will "uinhim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "uinhim" (3 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -1.3448870560935375,
      "diversity": -0.7285714285714286
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22633935281438383
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uinhim",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.004792332268370607,
    "share60": 0.018391787852865698,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.26056913589419717,
    "diversity": 0.14285714285714285,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22633935281438383
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.051

Log loss0.257

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001578694488297069,
  "shareRatio": 0.7870087738441357,
  "totalAfter": 43707,
  "shareBefore": 0.0020101127320954907,
  "totalBefore": 48256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "uinhim" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.16% (-21%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uinhim" (24H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash83dc10c2165e737684f80f8347338a21cabf14296aebe94ee68bdb3cf7bed785

Previous hash3ea4aa3ba7288f9b663599efa8d9c1d4e05479d37f7e1bcea2bfbb241448ef55