Will "followers" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "followers" (3 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": -1.2472485865296215,
      "diversity": -0.7105263157894736
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23527479816063745
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "followers",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.004792332268370607,
    "share60": 0.016680923866552608,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 0.2872941754730892,
    "diversity": 0.15789473684210525,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468981481482
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23527479816063745
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00034319445397762373,
  "shareRatio": 0.41236612966003305,
  "totalAfter": 43707,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008496352785145888,
  "totalBefore": 48256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity