Ledger / Prediction #2964 · narrative · 24H

Will "driven" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "driven" (5 distinct creators, rank #96). Last 15m momentum 2.24×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.8068751471659246,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5267854374692735
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "driven",
    "rank60": 96,
    "share15": 0.01437699680511182,
    "share60": 0.00641573994867408,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 2.240894568690096,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998468981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5267854374692735
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.224

Log loss0.641

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030429908252682636,
  "shareRatio": 1.310171440773619,
  "totalAfter": 43707,
  "shareBefore": 0.0023209549071618036,
  "totalBefore": 48256,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 133,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "driven" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.30% (+31%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "driven" (24H). momentum contributed +0.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0c64ea6c71def66758318c6ea9a54ebc0b6d8ec7c4d2b1416067d0eff5158816

Previous hash4e26e6870ba27f3f86f8a9b8525e0831d1eed6627570704c41979988a7de9db8