Ledger / Prediction #2973 · narrative · 6H
Will "angel" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
44 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "angel" (6 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.95×.
Made2026-10-13 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.32621275822262413,
"momentum": 0.6660181975549277,
"diversity": -0.7363636363636363
},
"rawProbability": 0.4698135367621626
},
"features": {
"term": "angel",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.07303370786516854,
"share60": 0.03752107925801012,
"total15": 266,
"total60": 1185,
"momentum": 1.9464714051256153,
"diversity": 0.13636363636363635,
"launches15": 19,
"launches60": 44,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 114,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988306018518519
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4698135367621626
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.221
Log loss0.635
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0009131377696609977,
"shareRatio": 0.1695272596966863,
"totalAfter": 8761,
"shareBefore": 0.005661538461538462,
"totalBefore": 8125,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 8,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "angel" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.09% (-84%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "angel" (6H). diversity contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7bb453a3ad5a9fc26cdd47e67f85b8c835c51dcb4f4769f321adc14860a664bbPrevious hash
2303ef310f233c31a4a0487a3cc7e089337327f31689f5f1b63f23682b59e8e2