GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2976 · narrative · 6H

Will "games" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "games" (5 distinct creators, rank #151). Last 15m momentum 2.02×.

Made2026-10-13 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.7026355607931511,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.599130834559936
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "games",
    "rank60": 151,
    "share15": 0.009363295880149813,
    "share60": 0.00463743676222597,
    "total15": 266,
    "total60": 1185,
    "momentum": 2.0190670752468507,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 114,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988306018518519
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.599130834559936
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.359
Log loss0.914
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015979910969067459,
  "shareRatio": 0.9961111533811831,
  "totalAfter": 8761,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016,
  "totalBefore": 8125,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "games" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.16% (-0%). PARTIAL.

— "games" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5e7270ea020766e9903a17d64e9ca1b22b1141e45ea31042f040e90a8adb37bf
Previous hashbb916992c5405276196e0b3300e968102040732d16232b6b17a52d1d5697d448