Will "games" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "games" (5 distinct creators, rank #151). Last 15m momentum 2.02×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.7026355607931511,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.599130834559936
},
"features": {
"term": "games",
"rank60": 151,
"share15": 0.009363295880149813,
"share60": 0.00463743676222597,
"total15": 266,
"total60": 1185,
"momentum": 2.0190670752468507,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 114,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988306018518519
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.599130834559936
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0015979910969067459,
"shareRatio": 0.9961111533811831,
"totalAfter": 8761,
"shareBefore": 0.0016,
"totalBefore": 8125,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 13
}Predicted 60% that "games" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.16% → 0.16% (-0%). PARTIAL.
— "games" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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