Will "pcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "pcat" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -2.951558335332895,
      "diversity": -0.8142857142857143
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11677771546279957
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pcat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0018726591760299626,
    "share60": 0.03583473861720068,
    "total15": 266,
    "total60": 1185,
    "momentum": 0.052258206653447895,
    "diversity": 0.07142857142857142,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 114,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999707650462963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11677771546279957
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008251392422471292,
  "shareRatio": 0.506167933033211,
  "totalAfter": 43629,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016424116424116424,
  "totalBefore": 48100,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 36,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 79
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity