Will "lobotomized" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
38 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "lobotomized" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3042222370938428,
"momentum": 0.6437950607702176,
"diversity": -0.7105263157894736
},
"rawProbability": 0.4548100246661101
},
"features": {
"term": "lobotomized",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.06179775280898876,
"share60": 0.03246205733558179,
"total15": 266,
"total60": 1185,
"momentum": 1.9036918138041734,
"diversity": 0.15789473684210525,
"launches15": 16,
"launches60": 38,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 114,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999707650462963
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4548100246661101
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.000458410690137294,
"shareRatio": 0.5870323350726743,
"totalAfter": 43629,
"shareBefore": 0.00079002079002079,
"totalBefore": 48100,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 38
}Predicted 45% that "lobotomized" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.05% (-42%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "lobotomized" (24H). diversity contributed -0.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
7ae701a5861d5313620ec522c2f473c2ece2a2c0ab0aaa2ea16ce8e7036533a9874ea5feed29bc1711f34e0e2cc20fd45bd0845e252827b773efed06f56bc46a