Will "pools" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1136 launches in the last hour referenced "pools" (6 distinct creators, rank #137). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.4785182278433987,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5656454968117127
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pools",
    "rank60": 137,
    "share15": 0.00922509225092251,
    "share60": 0.005716798592788039,
    "total15": 270,
    "total60": 1136,
    "momentum": 1.6136815214305988,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 149,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985386111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997564351851852
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5656454968117127
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004320120963386975,
  "shareRatio": 0.5134989200863931,
  "totalAfter": 9259,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008833922261484099,
  "totalBefore": 7924,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity