Ledger / Prediction #3 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 1333 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (47 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-09 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 0.04995275876118133,
      "diversity": -0.05820895522388056
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5202469248502569
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05319148936170213,
    "share60": 0.050599700149925035,
    "total15": 328,
    "total60": 1333,
    "momentum": 1.0512214342001576,
    "diversity": 0.7014925373134329,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 47
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 155,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918430555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918430555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5202469248502569
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.230

Log loss0.654

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05601194921583271,
  "shareRatio": 1.0928164930741975,
  "totalAfter": 1339,
  "shareBefore": 0.051224944320712694,
  "totalBefore": 1347,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.12% → 5.60% (+9%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash46f8cb14c0d6aacabe74333e7e01b6b97a40970a33651fd0189b8ceb5f74097a

Previous hashc7fb0753a9eecbe2a7b254a6d14e590e5b0ac555fea0b38f886f737ab3a78b4d