Ledger / Prediction #3002 · narrative · 1H

Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1177 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (10 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.33×.

Made2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": 0.2826016212193619,
      "diversity": -0.4714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44265050778812604
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.03209459459459459,
    "share60": 0.024193548387096774,
    "total15": 295,
    "total60": 1177,
    "momentum": 1.3265765765765765,
    "diversity": 0.35714285714285715,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 156,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957491666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957491666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44265050778812604
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.196

Log loss0.585

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008746355685131196,
  "shareRatio": 0.3838187702265372,
  "totalAfter": 1029,
  "shareBefore": 0.02362869198312236,
  "totalBefore": 1185,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "energy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.36% → 0.87% (-63%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "energy" (1H). diversity contributed -0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash80913142ea59e29e5677cc67c611889b7ebb582de7fa49119cd173931ec283a4

Previous hash1489954581b92840e00b0370a7ee8e5a30dfa230b398b1a000edcd911e5f19e5