Ledger / Prediction #3014 · token · 6H

Will $SL still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. website. Rides hot term "born". Creator launched 17 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04131095796590443
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "5rv29jAgkYCozi1y9ed63UqsMrfKfBvRbvAEKFpEpump",
    "name": "Super Dolphin",
    "symbol": "SL",
    "hotTerms": [
      "born"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 37,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 8422.093569934705,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 17
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 392,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04131095796590443
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.042

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T09:24:16.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 5027.5722403380105,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 15082.977120063344,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 8422.093569934705,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 16844.18713986941
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $SL would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $5,028, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $SL (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2c34de4d538bfb62c27c3af96ce09bf485ce32c53f55b65c3787fa37bcdd234d

Previous hash7f5d25f4df26f978b43473250489430bb280b2b5bbdcfa31e74d00442cbf8d78