Ledger / Prediction #302 · narrative · 1H

Will "subs" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2706 launches in the last hour referenced "subs" (12 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -3.3491195879037883,
      "diversity": -0.6714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "subs",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0008237232289950577,
    "share60": 0.023457702253417066,
    "total15": 606,
    "total60": 2706,
    "momentum": 0.035115256391962536,
    "diversity": 0.19047619047619047,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 464,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951961111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951961111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007997184709453218,
  "totalAfter": 2684,
  "shareBefore": 0.023110785033015408,
  "totalBefore": 2726,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "subs" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "subs" (1H). momentum contributed -3.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash455f2375c499ca18ce3669eb720ccd04d083a2e713665b112dca91b35c9c3c4e

Previous hash9ac0be2f2b8580ff923b8a44455b6fc4dea759bb8ff71bcec11d55d9cea196ef